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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Fusionloss 0:2
series probability
12%88%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Heroicwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fusion

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Michael · 7 games
14%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Frank · 5 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Prada · 5 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Michael · 5 games
20%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Prada · 4 games
25%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Prada · 4 games
75%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Prada · 4 games
25%
Sven
Sven
Wits · 4 games
25%

Heroic

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
KJ · 27 games
63%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 26 games
65%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Scofield · 20 games
70%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
4nalog · 19 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Scofield · 19 games
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 17 games
65%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
K1 · 15 games
73%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Davai · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
472 picks · 648 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
405 picks · 454 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 512 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
346 picks · 431 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
317 picks · 170 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
316 picks · 633 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
310 picks · 382 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
284 picks · 298 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 50%
Hero pool strength65% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:14
Fusion 27%Heroic 73%
The model gave 73% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 27:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetLeostyle
43% · 103 games55% · 115 games
Shadow FiendParker
Shadow Fiend
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFrank
51% · 197 games49% · 115 games
Invoker4nalog
Invoker
Spectre
SpectreMnz
52% · 23 games55% · 73 games
TidehunterDavai
Tidehunter
Batrider
BatriderMichael
46% · 237 games51% · 222 games
ClockwerkScofield
Clockwerk
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiPrada
52% · 48 games51% · 83 games
ChenKJ
Chen
Game 2prediction correct11:26
Fusion 26%Heroic 74%
The model gave 74% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 23:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaMnz
51% · 269 games51% · 160 games
Shadow FiendParker
Shadow Fiend
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerFrank
53% · 96 games46% · 163 games
BeastmasterDavai
Beastmaster
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritLeostyle
50% · 147 games55% · 263 games
Dragon Knight4nalog
Dragon Knight
Pugna
PugnaPrada
43% · 141 game58% · 147 games
Naga SirenKJ
Naga Siren
Tusk
TuskMichael
45% · 269 games48% · 189 games
MuertaScofield
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 88%
Series resultHeroic 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2