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European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 0:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
9Pandaswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 4 games
75%
Muerta
Muerta
ariel · 4 games
50%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
PERDAN4IK · 4 games
75%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
Otaker · 4 games
75%
Lion
Lion
ariel · 3 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 3 games
67%
Underlord
Underlord
мистер мораль · 3 games
67%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Otaker · 2 games
50%

9Pandas

Weaver
Weaversignature
sayuw · 10 games
60%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Solo · 8 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 6 games
50%
Undying
Undying
Solo · 5 games
20%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Alberkaaa · 4 games
75%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
DarkLord^ · 4 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Solo · 4 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
sayuw · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
471 picks · 648 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
405 picks · 452 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 510 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
346 picks · 431 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
317 picks · 171 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
316 picks · 632 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
309 picks · 382 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
283 picks · 299 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 54%
Hero pool strength55% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:45
4Pirates 35%9Pandas 65%
The model gave 65% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 27:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaOtaker
54% · 94 games55% · 147 games
AlchemistDarkLord^
Alchemist
Invoker
InvokerNattyNarwhal
53% · 119 games48% · 158 games
Puckerase
Puck
Visage
Visageмистер мораль
50% · 66 games50% · 73 games
RazorNoticed
Razor
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterariel
54% · 23 games58% · 50 games
Nyx Assassinyamich
Nyx Assassin
Tusk
TuskPERDAN4IK
43% · 282 games41% · 156 games
PhoenixSolo
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct19:39
4Pirates 37%9Pandas 63%
The model gave 63% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 31:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistOtaker
55% · 137 games46% · 123 games
BristlebackNoticed
Bristleback
Primal Beast
Primal Beastмистер мораль
52% · 191 game51% · 406 games
Dragon KnightDarkLord^
Dragon Knight
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
48% · 106 games52% · 165 games
Invokererase
Invoker
Phoenix
PhoenixPERDAN4IK
50% · 156 games43% · 47 games
UndyingSolo
Undying
Batrider
Batriderariel
47% · 209 games54% · 58 games
Pudgeyamich
Pudge
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 77%
Series result9Pandas 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2