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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:0
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 26 games
69%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 24 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 24 games
63%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 21 game
67%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 20 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 19 games
79%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xibbe · 19 games
74%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 19 games
63%

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 26 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Ari · 25 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 23 games
65%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 17 games
71%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Nine · 16 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Wisper · 15 games
80%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 15 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bzm · 15 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
470 picks · 646 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
405 picks · 452 bans
52%
Luna
Luna
347 picks · 430 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
347 picks · 508 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
316 picks · 170 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
316 picks · 633 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
306 picks · 382 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
284 picks · 298 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% AVULUS
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:21
AVULUS 52%OG 48%
The model gave 52% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 45:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSmiling Knight
55% · 362 games43% · 330 games
Morphling23savage
Morphling
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritStormstormer
48% · 168 games49% · 406 games
PangolierNine
Pangolier
Enigma
EnigmaXibbe
53% · 165 games53% · 329 games
MarsWisper
Mars
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSoNNeikO
52% · 410 games51% · 254 games
Dark WillowAri
Dark Willow
Hoodwink
HoodwinkEkki
51% · 372 games47% · 158 games
PugnaxNova
Pugna
Game 2prediction missed35:12
AVULUS 49%OG 51%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by AVULUS in 36:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSmiling Knight
48% · 361 game49% · 206 games
Alchemist23savage
Alchemist
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerXibbe
54% · 90 games42% · 216 games
Storm SpiritNine
Storm Spirit
Monkey King
Monkey KingStormstormer
55% · 195 games54% · 157 games
MagnusWisper
Magnus
Lion
LionEkki
50% · 308 games47% · 341 game
HoodwinkAri
Hoodwink
Phoenix
PhoenixSoNNeikO
48% · 296 games53% · 330 games
EnchantressxNova
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 51%
Series resultAVULUS 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2