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CCT Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Passion UAwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
DaaD- · 6 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Thiolicor · 4 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
MikSa` · 4 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Thiolicor · 4 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
MikSa` · 4 games
75%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Thiolicor · 4 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 4 games
75%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
LeBronDota · 4 games
25%

Passion UA

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 19 games
37%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 18 games
44%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 16 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
niche · 15 games
60%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
flacko · 14 games
36%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
flacko · 13 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 13 games
38%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 13 games
23%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
468 picks · 638 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
402 picks · 448 bans
52%
Luna
Luna
343 picks · 428 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
343 picks · 499 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
316 picks · 626 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
314 picks · 169 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
302 picks · 373 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
281 picks · 290 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 49%
Hero pool strength57% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed4:30
Zero Tenacity 53%Passion UA 47%
The model gave 53% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Passion UA in 15:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterDaaD-
48% · 258 games51% · 160 games
Shadow Fiendyowaai
Shadow Fiend
Viper
ViperStojkov
47% · 52 games50% · 119 games
BristlebackBatyuk
Bristleback
Pangolier
PangolierMikSa`
47% · 364 games53% · 178 games
Monkey Kingniche
Monkey King
Hoodwink
HoodwinkjAMES
49% · 310 games57% · 316 games
Shadow DemonFernans
Shadow Demon
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiLeBronDota
47% · 45 games50% · 256 games
Tuskflacko
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct39:31
Zero Tenacity 54%Passion UA 46%
The model gave 54% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 39:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendDaaD-
51% · 189 games50% · 242 games
Gyrocopteryowaai
Gyrocopter
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeMikSa`
45% · 159 games52% · 234 games
Marsniche
Mars
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritStojkov
50% · 197 games53% · 271 game
BeastmasterBatyuk
Beastmaster
Dark Willow
Dark WillowjAMES
49% · 309 games50% · 166 games
MuertaFernans
Muerta
Clockwerk
ClockwerkLeBronDota
51% · 366 games50% · 307 games
Tuskflacko
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed34:45
Zero Tenacity 54%Passion UA 46%
The model gave 54% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Passion UA in 46:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaDaaD-
52% · 353 games46% · 308 games
Morphlingyowaai
Morphling
Puck
PuckStojkov
54% · 278 games53% · 249 games
DoomBatyuk
Doom
Sand King
Sand KingMikSa`
54% · 221 game48% · 444 games
Pangolierniche
Pangolier
Muerta
MuertajAMES
47% · 161 game49% · 56 games
Ogre Magiflacko
Ogre Magi
Clockwerk
ClockwerkLeBronDota
51% · 379 games47% · 335 games
HoodwinkFernans
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 56%
Series resultPassion UA 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3