IESF World Esports Championship 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Египетloss 1:2series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Болгарияwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Египет
No games played over 6 months.
Болгария
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
468 picks · 631 bans
Clockwerk
402 picks · 446 bans
Pangolier
346 picks · 491 bans
Luna
343 picks · 425 bans
Enchantress
318 picks · 624 bans
Dark Willow
314 picks · 166 bans
Dragon Knight
301 picks · 371 bans
Batrider
281 picks · 281 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Египет
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Болгария
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:45
Египет 17%Болгария 83%
The model gave 83% on Болгария — the game was taken by Египет in 47:41.
Game 2prediction correct12:29
Египет 17%Болгария 83%
The model gave 83% on Болгария — the game was taken by Болгария in 29:21.
Game 3prediction correct15:27
Египет 17%Болгария 83%
The model gave 83% on Болгария — the game was taken by Болгария in 31:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteБолгария · 83%
Series resultБолгария 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3