ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTMTeam Mansafloss 0:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Winter Bearwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Mansaf
Crystal Maiden
Nagato · 2 games
Elder Titan
Nagato · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
islA · 1 game
Marci
islA · 1 game
Muerta
islA · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
islA · 1 game
Pugna
Nagato · 1 game
Shadow Demonoften banned
islA · 1 game
Winter Bear
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 3 games
Hoodwink
ArrOw · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ethereal · 2 games
Phoenix
Stoic · 2 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Ethereal · 2 games
Snapfire
Stoic · 2 games
Venomancer
Stoic · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
468 picks · 631 bans
Clockwerk
402 picks · 446 bans
Pangolier
346 picks · 491 bans
Luna
343 picks · 425 bans
Enchantress
318 picks · 624 bans
Dark Willow
314 picks · 166 bans
Dragon Knight
301 picks · 371 bans
Batrider
281 picks · 281 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 67%
Hero pool strength63% Team Mansaf
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:32
Team Mansaf 39%Winter Bear 61%
The model gave 61% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 50:53.
Game 2prediction correct17:40
Team Mansaf 39%Winter Bear 61%
The model gave 61% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 34:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 61%
Series resultWinter Bear 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2