?
arrow_backBack to match
CCT Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dragon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 21 game
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 18 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 16 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Rein · 15 games
27%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Rein · 14 games
79%
Marci
Marci
not me · 14 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
not me · 14 games
79%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
SSS · 14 games
50%

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 26 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 19 games
58%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 19 games
26%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mary_y · 17 games
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
paw · 16 games
63%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
lil pleb · 14 games
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
lil pleb · 13 games
38%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
468 picks · 631 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
402 picks · 446 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
346 picks · 491 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
343 picks · 425 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
318 picks · 624 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
314 picks · 166 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
301 picks · 371 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
281 picks · 281 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% One Move
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total70% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:15
One Move 62%Dragon Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 30:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaWoE
50% · 99 games48% · 116 games
AlchemistLowskill
Alchemist
Monkey King
Monkey KingDifference
61% · 121 game42% · 63 games
Queen of Paindualrazee
Queen of Pain
Magnus
MagnusSSS
61% · 129 games40% · 53 games
VisageInfernal
Visage
Dark Willow
Dark Willownot me
51% · 232 games46% · 161 game
PhoenixMary_y
Phoenix
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionRein
51% · 24 games45% · 212 games
Tuskxsvampire
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct39:32
One Move 62%Dragon Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 37:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaWoE
43% · 191 game57% · 147 games
Storm Spiritdualrazee
Storm Spirit
Alchemist
AlchemistSSS
54% · 217 games49% · 77 games
RazorLowskill
Razor
Sand King
Sand KingDifference
49% · 183 games48% · 197 games
DoomInfernal
Doom
Marci
Marcinot me
43% · 151 game52% · 162 games
Batriderxsvampire
Batrider
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiRein
53% · 60 games52% · 219 games
ClockwerkMary_y
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 70%
Series resultOne Move 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2