ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Gaozuwin 3:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Xtreme Gamingloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaozu
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 4 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
JT- · 3 games
Muerta
XinQ · 3 games
Phoenix
Dy · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
Ame · 2 games
Dark Willow
XinQ · 2 games
Marsoften banned
JT- · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ame · 2 games
Xtreme Gaming
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 23 games
Clockwerksignature
天命 · 22 games
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 20 games
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 18 games
Puckoften banned
Xm · 18 games
Hoodwinksignature
Pyw · 17 games
Tusksignature
Pyw · 17 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ame · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
466 picks · 629 bans
Clockwerk
399 picks · 444 bans
Luna
339 picks · 423 bans
Pangolier
339 picks · 489 bans
Enchantress
315 picks · 622 bans
Dark Willow
312 picks · 166 bans
Dragon Knight
298 picks · 365 bans
Batrider
280 picks · 280 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 42%
Hero pool strength55% Gaozu
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:17
Gaozu 50%Xtreme Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Gaozu in 44:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistAme
Lunalou
Storm SpiritPaparazi
Doomniu
UnderlordJT-
Ember SpiritXm
HoodwinkXinQ
TuskPoloson
Elder TitanDy
Dark WillowPyw
Game 2prediction correct18:37
Gaozu 48%Xtreme Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 37:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightAme
Lunalou
DawnbreakerJT-
Doomniu
Storm SpiritPaparazi
PangolierXm
GrimstrokeXinQ
LionPyw
UndyingDy
TuskPoloson
Game 3prediction missed26:13
Gaozu 45%Xtreme Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Gaozu in 37:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendAme
Bristlebacklou
InvokerPaparazi
Dawnbreakerniu
Centaur WarrunnerJT-
PangolierXm
SnapfireXinQ
LionPyw
MarciDy
PhoenixPoloson
Game 4prediction correct23:27
Gaozu 49%Xtreme Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 36:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SpectreAme
Morphlinglou
Storm SpiritPaparazi
PangolierXm
Primal BeastJT-
Marsniu
PhoenixDy
ClockwerkPoloson
HoodwinkXinQ
LionPyw
Game 5prediction missed28:12
Gaozu 47%Xtreme Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Gaozu in 29:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaAme
LinaXm
PangolierPaparazi
Gyrocopterlou
MarsJT-
Primal Beastniu
Shadow DemonXinQ
ClockwerkPoloson
PhoenixDy
LionPyw
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 56%
Series resultGaozu 3:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 5