?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Kukuysloss 0:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Kukuys

Marci
Marci
Palos · 7 games
57%
Mirana
Mirana
Palos · 5 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jing · 5 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 4 games
75%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Natsumi · 4 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Natsumi · 3 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Jing · 3 games
33%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
Palos · 3 games
100%

Aurora Gaming

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Q · 14 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Jabz · 14 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Q · 13 games
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 13 games
38%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Q · 12 games
50%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Q · 12 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Q · 11 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Jabz · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
466 picks · 626 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
397 picks · 443 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
341 picks · 487 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
337 picks · 422 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
317 picks · 619 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
312 picks · 166 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
297 picks · 368 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
279 picks · 279 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 45%
Hero pool strength56% Team Kukuys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:21
Team Kukuys 28%Aurora Gaming 72%
The model gave 72% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 29:48.
Game 2prediction correct33:18
Team Kukuys 28%Aurora Gaming 72%
The model gave 72% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 43:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 72%
Series resultAurora Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2