ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Apex Genesiswin 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MEMouth Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Apex Genesis
Dark Willow
Bignum · 15 games
Enchantressoften banned
YamSun · 10 games
Enigmaoften banned
Fayde · 10 games
Crystal Maiden
YamSun · 9 games
Pangolieroften banned
W1sh- · 9 games
Snapfire
Bignum · 9 games
Phoenix
YamSun · 8 games
Rubicksignature
Bignum · 8 games
Mouth Esports
Gyrocopteroften banned
Cucahook · 2 games
Muerta
N1NE · 2 games
Phoenix
CHAAANNN · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
Cucahook · 1 game
Batrider
N1NE · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
CHAAANNN · 1 game
Dark Willow
N1NE · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cucahook · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
464 picks · 624 bans
Clockwerk
394 picks · 441 bans
Pangolier
340 picks · 484 bans
Luna
336 picks · 420 bans
Enchantress
316 picks · 613 bans
Dark Willow
311 picks · 166 bans
Dragon Knight
296 picks · 363 bans
Batrider
276 picks · 275 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 67%
Hero pool strength55% Mouth Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Apex Genesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Apex Genesis 76%Mouth Esports 24%
The model gave 76% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis.
Game 2prediction correct
Apex Genesis 76%Mouth Esports 24%
The model gave 76% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteApex Genesis · 76%
Series resultApex Genesis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2