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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Atlantic Citywin 2:1
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Atlantic City

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Gunnar · 1 game
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yuma · 1 game
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Fly · 1 game
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Lelis · 1 game
100%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Copy · 1 game
100%

Shopify Rebellion

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yopaj · 17 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 14 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 13 games
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Skem · 11 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Hellscream · 10 games
70%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Skem · 10 games
70%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 10 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Yopaj · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
464 picks · 624 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
394 picks · 441 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
340 picks · 484 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
336 picks · 420 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
316 picks · 613 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
311 picks · 166 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
296 picks · 363 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
276 picks · 275 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Atlantic City
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:41
Atlantic City 43%Shopify Rebellion 57%
The model gave 57% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 37:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaYuma
46% · 73 games52% · 136 games
Monkey KingTimado
Monkey King
Beastmaster
BeastmasterGunnar
48% · 144 games53% · 164 games
Earth SpiritYopaj
Earth Spirit
Invoker
InvokerCopy
51% · 102 games53% · 131 game
Enigmamangekyou
Enigma
Phoenix
PhoenixFly
49% · 137 games53% · 125 games
ChenSkem
Chen
Tusk
TuskLelis
40% · 177 games55% · 77 games
Nyx AssassinHellscream
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction missed25:21
Atlantic City 42%Shopify Rebellion 58%
The model gave 58% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Atlantic City in 44:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
TinkerCopy
49% · 23 games63% · 25 games
Broodmothermangekyou
Broodmother
Bristleback
BristlebackGunnar
52% · 107 games41% · 63 games
TerrorbladeTimado
Terrorblade
Meepo
MeepoYuma
49% · 27 games56% · 90 games
InvokerYopaj
Invoker
Pugna
PugnaFly
49% · 130 games49% · 177 games
BatriderHellscream
Batrider
Lion
LionLelis
49% · 200 games48% · 132 games
ClockwerkSkem
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed36:24
Atlantic City 43%Shopify Rebellion 57%
The model gave 57% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Atlantic City in 50:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusYuma
55% · 149 games44% · 131 game
Shadow FiendTimado
Shadow Fiend
Monkey King
Monkey KingCopy
55% · 110 games43% · 94 games
Terrorblademangekyou
Terrorblade
Timbersaw
TimbersawGunnar
46% · 169 games49% · 122 games
InvokerYopaj
Invoker
Muerta
MuertaLelis
48% · 122 games52% · 214 games
LionHellscream
Lion
Jakiro
JakiroFly
52% · 109 games57% · 98 games
ChenSkem
Chen
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 64%
Series resultAtlantic City 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3