ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Fusionloss 1:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 1:2
beastcoastwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fusion
Hoodwink
Michael · 6 games
Snapfire
Michael · 5 games
Disruptor
Prada · 4 games
Phoenix
Prada · 4 games
Sven
Wits · 4 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Wits · 4 games
Tinyoften banned
Wits · 4 games
Alchemistoften banned
Mnz · 3 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
464 picks · 624 bans
Clockwerk
394 picks · 441 bans
Pangolier
340 picks · 484 bans
Luna
336 picks · 420 bans
Enchantress
316 picks · 613 bans
Dark Willow
311 picks · 166 bans
Dragon Knight
296 picks · 363 bans
Batrider
276 picks · 275 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 41%
Hero pool strength56% beastcoast
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total77% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:32
Fusion 23%beastcoast 77%
The model gave 77% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 37:53.
Game 2prediction missed25:10
Fusion 23%beastcoast 77%
The model gave 77% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Fusion in 43:21.
Game 3prediction correct9:33
Fusion 23%beastcoast 77%
The model gave 77% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 25:57.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 77%
Series resultbeastcoast 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3