ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Apex Genesiswin 2:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
photographersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Apex Genesis
Dark Willow
Bignum · 15 games
Enchantressoften banned
YamSun · 10 games
Enigmaoften banned
Fayde · 10 games
Crystal Maiden
YamSun · 9 games
Pangolieroften banned
W1sh- · 9 games
Snapfire
Bignum · 9 games
Phoenix
YamSun · 8 games
Rubicksignature
Bignum · 8 games
photographers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
463 picks · 621 bans
Clockwerk
391 picks · 438 bans
Pangolier
340 picks · 482 bans
Luna
336 picks · 419 bans
Enchantress
316 picks · 612 bans
Dark Willow
310 picks · 165 bans
Dragon Knight
294 picks · 360 bans
Batrider
275 picks · 275 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% photographers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Apex Genesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Apex Genesis 73%photographers 27%
The model gave 73% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis.
Game 2prediction correct
Apex Genesis 73%photographers 27%
The model gave 73% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteApex Genesis · 73%
Series resultApex Genesis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2