ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionMEMouth Esportswin 2:0
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CONSILIUMloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Mouth Esports
Gyrocopteroften banned
Cucahook · 2 games
Muerta
N1NE · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
CHAAANNN · 1 game
Ogre Magi
CHAAANNN · 1 game
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Cucahook · 1 game
Phoenix
CHAAANNN · 1 game
Shadow Demonoften banned
N1NE · 1 game
CONSILIUM
Muerta
zuyzyan · 3 games
Tuskoften banned
Steelborco · 3 games
Medusaoften banned
zuyzyan · 2 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Steelborco · 1 game
Omniknightoften banned
Steelborco · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
463 picks · 621 bans
Clockwerk
391 picks · 438 bans
Pangolier
340 picks · 482 bans
Luna
336 picks · 419 bans
Enchantress
316 picks · 612 bans
Dark Willow
310 picks · 165 bans
Dragon Knight
294 picks · 360 bans
Batrider
275 picks · 275 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% CONSILIUM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% CONSILIUM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed44:10
Mouth Esports 46%CONSILIUM 54%
The model gave 54% on CONSILIUM — the game was taken by Mouth Esports in 28:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightCucahook
Alchemistzuyzyan
Dark WillowN1NE
ClockwerkSteelborco
PhoenixCHAAANNN
Game 2prediction missed50:39
Mouth Esports 48%CONSILIUM 52%
The model gave 52% on CONSILIUM — the game was taken by Mouth Esports in 41:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistCucahook
Shadow Fiendzuyzyan
BatriderN1NE
ClockwerkSteelborco
JakiroCHAAANNN
Model check result
Model favoriteCONSILIUM · 53%
Series resultMouth Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2