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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PuckChampwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Kiritych · 15 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Antares · 13 games
62%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Fng · 13 games
62%
Underlord
Underlord
Noticed · 12 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Kiritych · 10 games
80%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 9 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Antares · 8 games
63%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fng · 8 games
75%

PuckChamp

Lion
Lion
QBFY · 4 games
75%
Magnus
Magnus
Sancity · 3 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
BOOM · 2 games
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Shad · 2 games
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shad · 2 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Kaori · 2 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Sancity · 2 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
BOOM · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
459 picks · 619 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
391 picks · 434 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
337 picks · 480 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
334 picks · 418 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
315 picks · 607 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
309 picks · 166 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
290 picks · 356 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
274 picks · 270 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 73%
Hero pool strength52% PuckChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:25
Virtus.pro 52%PuckChamp 48%
The model gave 52% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 40:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightKiritych
49% · 280 games49% · 158 games
BeastmasterBOOM
Beastmaster
Broodmother
BroodmotherNoticed
51% · 52 games49% · 219 games
PuckSancity
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierSquad1x
53% · 397 games50% · 280 games
GyrocopterShad
Gyrocopter
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAntares
54% · 164 games34% · 41 game
Ancient ApparitionKaori
Ancient Apparition
Lich
Lichaik
48% · 27 games53% · 222 games
LionQBFY
Lion
Game 2prediction missed15:29
Virtus.pro 52%PuckChamp 48%
The model gave 52% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 45:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightKiritych
53% · 270 games49% · 209 games
GyrocopterShad
Gyrocopter
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritSquad1x
50% · 94 games54% · 149 games
BeastmasterBOOM
Beastmaster
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNoticed
42% · 105 games51% · 118 games
Sand KingSancity
Sand King
Muerta
MuertaAntares
43% · 127 games53% · 38 games
Ancient ApparitionKaori
Ancient Apparition
Pugna
Pugnaaik
54% · 121 game51% · 203 games
LionQBFY
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 56%
Series resultPuckChamp 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2