ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
photographerswin 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TiltedBoysloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
photographers
No games played over 6 months.
TiltedBoys
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
458 picks · 614 bans
Clockwerk
392 picks · 428 bans
Pangolier
337 picks · 475 bans
Luna
334 picks · 417 bans
Enchantress
313 picks · 603 bans
Dark Willow
309 picks · 166 bans
Dragon Knight
289 picks · 353 bans
Sand King
273 picks · 805 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% photographers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
photographers 46%TiltedBoys 54%
The model gave 54% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by photographers.
Game 2prediction missed
photographers 46%TiltedBoys 54%
The model gave 54% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by photographers.
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 54%
Series resultphotographers 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2