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CCT Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
DMSloss 1:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Passion UAwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

DMS

Batrider
Batrider
Daxak · 17 games
47%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
rincyq · 12 games
58%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 12 games
75%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
prblms · 12 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Daxak · 11 games
36%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Hduo · 10 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
mellojul · 10 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
aik · 9 games
44%

Passion UA

Batrider
Batrider
Fernans · 19 games
37%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 18 games
44%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 16 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Batyuk · 14 games
57%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
flacko · 14 games
36%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
flacko · 13 games
54%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 13 games
23%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 12 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
457 picks · 612 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
392 picks · 426 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
337 picks · 475 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
333 picks · 417 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
314 picks · 603 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
306 picks · 167 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
288 picks · 352 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
274 picks · 800 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 49%
Hero pool strength54% DMS
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total58% DMS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:12
DMS 55%Passion UA 45%
The model gave 55% on DMS — the game was taken by DMS in 22:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendShigetsu
55% · 101 game50% · 214 games
Lunayowaai
Luna
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritmellojul
53% · 112 games47% · 138 games
Ember Spiritniche
Ember Spirit
Magnus
Magnusemptiness
55% · 113 games40% · 77 games
VisageBatyuk
Visage
Batrider
Batriderprblms
48% · 255 games43% · 84 games
MarciFernans
Marci
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiHduo
54% · 28 games55% · 96 games
Chenflacko
Chen
Game 2prediction missed36:34
DMS 56%Passion UA 44%
The model gave 56% on DMS — the game was taken by Passion UA in 51:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistShigetsu
55% · 175 games47% · 101 game
BristlebackBatyuk
Bristleback
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritmellojul
46% · 152 games46% · 123 games
Shadow Fiendyowaai
Shadow Fiend
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeremptiness
50% · 80 games47% · 280 games
Pangolierniche
Pangolier
Naga Siren
Naga SirenHduo
56% · 124 games47% · 166 games
Dark WillowFernans
Dark Willow
Lion
Lionprblms
50% · 206 games55% · 67 games
Elder Titanflacko
Elder Titan
Game 3prediction missed46:44
DMS 56%Passion UA 44%
The model gave 56% on DMS — the game was taken by Passion UA in 59:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaShigetsu
46% · 137 games44% · 104 games
TerrorbladeBatyuk
Terrorblade
Earthshaker
Earthshakermellojul
59% · 69 games51% · 258 games
Dragon Knightyowaai
Dragon Knight
Magnus
Magnusemptiness
51% · 140 games52% · 189 games
Storm Spiritniche
Storm Spirit
Batrider
Batriderprblms
51% · 324 games53% · 163 games
Pugnaflacko
Pugna
Tusk
TuskHduo
47% · 305 games47% · 261 game
Dark WillowFernans
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteDMS · 58%
Series resultPassion UA 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3