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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:0
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PuckChamp

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Shad · 2 games
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shad · 2 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Kaori · 2 games
50%
Lion
Lion
QBFY · 2 games
50%
Magnus
Magnus
Sancity · 2 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
BOOM · 2 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
BOOM · 2 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Kaori · 2 games
50%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lion
Riddys · 24 games
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 19 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 17 games
53%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Niku · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 16 games
44%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Riddys · 14 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 13 games
46%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
pma · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
455 picks · 612 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
391 picks · 425 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
337 picks · 473 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
333 picks · 415 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
313 picks · 600 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
306 picks · 167 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
288 picks · 349 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
272 picks · 798 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 62%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:7
PuckChamp 48%Natus Vincere Junior 52%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 28:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistShad
55% · 89 games55% · 65 games
Ursagotthejuice
Ursa
Magnus
MagnusBOOM
44% · 65 games42% · 139 games
Ember SpiritNiku
Ember Spirit
Monkey King
Monkey KingSancity
57% · 82 games51% · 41 game
Underlordpma
Underlord
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionKaori
46% · 27 games47% · 115 games
MuertaDaze
Muerta
Lion
LionQBFY
49% · 115 games53% · 18 games
LichRiddys
Lich
Game 2prediction missed25:12
PuckChamp 49%Natus Vincere Junior 51%
The model gave 51% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 27:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendShad
53% · 121 game45% · 170 games
Alchemistgotthejuice
Alchemist
Monkey King
Monkey KingSancity
58% · 120 games49% · 96 games
Earth SpiritNiku
Earth Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBOOM
47% · 191 game48% · 233 games
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Centaur Warrunner
Naga Siren
Naga SirenKaori
56% · 121 game44% · 28 games
LichRiddys
Lich
Lion
LionQBFY
48% · 214 games50% · 240 games
RubickDaze
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 53%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2