ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
RSRogue Squadloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 3 games
Hoodwink
ArrOw · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ethereal · 2 games
Phoenix
Stoic · 2 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Ethereal · 2 games
Snapfire
Stoic · 2 games
Venomancer
Stoic · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 1 game
Rogue Squad
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
456 picks · 608 bans
Clockwerk
391 picks · 422 bans
Pangolier
337 picks · 473 bans
Luna
333 picks · 413 bans
Enchantress
313 picks · 602 bans
Dark Willow
306 picks · 166 bans
Dragon Knight
289 picks · 347 bans
Sand King
272 picks · 798 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 57%
Hero pool strength61% Rogue Squad
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:24
Winter Bear 63%Rogue Squad 37%
The model gave 63% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 35:19.
Game 2prediction correct33:28
Winter Bear 63%Rogue Squad 37%
The model gave 63% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 36:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 63%
Series resultWinter Bear 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2