ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Advance Esportswin 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nnananaloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Advance Esports
No games played over 6 months.
nanana
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
456 picks · 608 bans
Clockwerk
391 picks · 422 bans
Pangolier
337 picks · 473 bans
Luna
333 picks · 413 bans
Enchantress
313 picks · 602 bans
Dark Willow
306 picks · 166 bans
Dragon Knight
289 picks · 347 bans
Sand King
272 picks · 798 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Advance Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% nanana
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:21
Advance Esports 46%nanana 54%
The model gave 54% on nanana — the game was taken by Advance Esports in 37:02.
Game 2prediction missed31:15
Advance Esports 46%nanana 54%
The model gave 54% on nanana — the game was taken by Advance Esports in 20:31.
Model check result
Model favoritenanana · 54%
Series resultAdvance Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2