ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Titanloss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yakult Brotherswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Titan
Grimstroke
mercy · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
BEYOND · 1 game
Sand Kingoften banned
Echo · 1 game
Shadow Fiendoften banned
poyoyo · 1 game
Tuskoften banned
zzq · 1 game
Yakult Brothers
Enchantressoften banned
Poloson · 13 games
Clockwerksignature
Poloson · 10 games
Invokersignature
Emo · 10 games
Muerta
BoBoKa · 9 games
Pangolieroften banned
zeal · 9 games
Lunasignature
flyfly · 8 games
Medusasignature
flyfly · 8 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
453 picks · 603 bans
Clockwerk
388 picks · 419 bans
Pangolier
334 picks · 471 bans
Luna
332 picks · 409 bans
Enchantress
310 picks · 597 bans
Dark Willow
305 picks · 165 bans
Dragon Knight
285 picks · 343 bans
Sand King
271 picks · 794 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 44%
Hero pool strength59% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct3:27
Titan 35%Yakult Brothers 65%
The model gave 65% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 25:27.
Game 2prediction correct19:27
Titan 35%Yakult Brothers 65%
The model gave 65% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 48:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 65%
Series resultYakult Brothers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2