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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Gaozuwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 23 games
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
天命 · 20 games
65%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 19 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 18 games
72%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 18 games
56%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Pyw · 17 games
65%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
XinQ · 16 games
69%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 16 games
56%

Gaozu

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 4 games
100%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
JT- · 2 games
100%
Muerta
Muerta
XinQ · 2 games
100%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Ame · 1 game
100%
Bane
Bane
Dy · 1 game
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
JT- · 1 game
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
XinQ · 1 game
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ame · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
453 picks · 603 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
388 picks · 419 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
334 picks · 471 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
332 picks · 409 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
310 picks · 597 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
305 picks · 165 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
285 picks · 343 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
271 picks · 794 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 71%
Hero pool strength54% Gaozu
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:9
Xtreme Gaming 57%Gaozu 43%
The model gave 57% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 29:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterlou
45% · 266 games47% · 269 games
MorphlingAme
Morphling
Beastmaster
Beastmasterniu
53% · 203 games49% · 153 games
InvokerPaparazi
Invoker
Sniper
SniperXm
51% · 97 games50% · 199 games
MarsJT-
Mars
Muerta
MuertaPyw
45% · 177 games50% · 309 games
Dark WillowXinQ
Dark Willow
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPoloson
56% · 321 game55% · 134 games
PugnaDy
Pugna
Game 2prediction missed23:39
Xtreme Gaming 55%Gaozu 45%
The model gave 55% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Gaozu in 59:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightlou
49% · 309 games52% · 172 games
Monkey KingAme
Monkey King
Magnus
Magnusniu
53% · 122 games47% · 231 game
RazorPaparazi
Razor
Viper
ViperXm
46% · 51 game51% · 270 games
DoomJT-
Doom
Hoodwink
HoodwinkPyw
49% · 300 games49% · 139 games
MuertaXinQ
Muerta
Enchantress
EnchantressPoloson
53% · 313 games49% · 283 games
PhoenixDy
Phoenix
Game 3prediction missed26:43
Xtreme Gaming 55%Gaozu 45%
The model gave 55% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Gaozu in 55:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlinglou
48% · 224 games56% · 191 game
AlchemistAme
Alchemist
Sand King
Sand KingXm
52% · 138 games50% · 137 games
LeshracPaparazi
Leshrac
Timbersaw
Timbersawniu
48% · 206 games50% · 84 games
DawnbreakerJT-
Dawnbreaker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPoloson
43% · 214 games54% · 222 games
LionXinQ
Lion
Muerta
MuertaPyw
51% · 150 games49% · 298 games
PhoenixDy
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 62%
Series resultGaozu 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3