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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Palianytsialoss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 4 games
75%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
LeBronDota · 4 games
25%
Batrider
Batrider
Thiolicor · 3 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
MikSa` · 3 games
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
MikSa` · 3 games
67%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
LeBronDota · 2 games
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 2 games
50%

Palianytsia

Luna
Lunasignature
Crystallize · 18 games
61%
Leshrac
Leshrac
QBFY · 16 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Moonlight · 16 games
44%
Snapfire
Snapfire
QBFY · 16 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
kreker · 12 games
25%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 12 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
kreker · 11 games
36%
Doom
Doomoften banned
fortniteMan · 11 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
453 picks · 601 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
386 picks · 418 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
332 picks · 470 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
331 picks · 409 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
310 picks · 595 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
302 picks · 164 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
283 picks · 342 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
269 picks · 793 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 40%
Hero pool strength56% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:21
Zero Tenacity 62%Palianytsia 38%
The model gave 62% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 38:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterDaaD-
47% · 324 games47% · 179 games
Shadow FiendCrystallize
Shadow Fiend
Sand King
Sand KingMikSa`
51% · 193 games47% · 444 games
PangolierMoonlight
Pangolier
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritStojkov
56% · 290 games53% · 341 game
Centaur WarrunnerfortniteMan
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonThiolicor
58% · 326 games45% · 355 games
Hoodwinkkreker
Hoodwink
Dark Willow
Dark WillowLeBronDota
45% · 241 game54% · 55 games
Ogre Magidark
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct28:17
Zero Tenacity 61%Palianytsia 39%
The model gave 61% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 27:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaDaaD-
51% · 352 games53% · 422 games
Dragon KnightCrystallize
Dragon Knight
Timbersaw
TimbersawMikSa`
49% · 332 games49% · 221 game
BeastmasterfortniteMan
Beastmaster
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritStojkov
46% · 257 games48% · 513 games
PangolierMoonlight
Pangolier
Clockwerk
ClockwerkLeBronDota
54% · 433 games49% · 313 games
Dark Willowkreker
Dark Willow
Lion
LionThiolicor
51% · 278 games50% · 183 games
Pugnadark
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 68%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2