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European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydraloss 0:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Passion UAwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 7 games
43%
Underlord
Underlord
Actor · 7 games
29%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
ani-san · 6 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Actor · 5 games
40%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 5 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
ani-san · 5 games
20%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Ethereal · 4 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
ani-san · 4 games
50%

Passion UA

Batrider
Batrider
Fernans · 19 games
37%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 18 games
44%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 15 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Batyuk · 14 games
57%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
flacko · 14 games
36%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
flacko · 13 games
54%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 13 games
23%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 12 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
451 picks · 601 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
386 picks · 417 bans
52%
Luna
Luna
330 picks · 407 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
330 picks · 471 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
310 picks · 594 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
301 picks · 164 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
284 picks · 341 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
269 picks · 791 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 46%
Hero pool strength50% Passion UA
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total57% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:23
Hydra 46%Passion UA 54%
The model gave 54% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 28:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritselfhate
47% · 139 games53% · 51 game
Medusayowaai
Medusa
Beastmaster
BeastmasterActor
53% · 204 games50% · 63 games
TimbersawBatyuk
Timbersaw
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageAstral
47% · 39 games47% · 61 game
Invokerniche
Invoker
53% · 109 games
Dark WillowFernans
Dark Willow
50% · 98 games
Phoenixflacko
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct
Hydra 43%Passion UA 57%
The model gave 57% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA.
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 57%
Series resultPassion UA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2