ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Blue Submarineloss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
One Movewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blue Submarine
No games played over 6 months.
One Move
Ember Spiritsignature
Difference · 20 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 17 games
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 15 games
Clockwerksignature
Rein · 14 games
Jakiro
Rein · 14 games
Marci
not me · 14 games
Snapfiresignature
not me · 14 games
Timbersawoften banned
SSS · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
451 picks · 601 bans
Clockwerk
386 picks · 417 bans
Luna
330 picks · 407 bans
Pangolier
330 picks · 471 bans
Enchantress
310 picks · 594 bans
Dark Willow
301 picks · 164 bans
Dragon Knight
284 picks · 341 bans
Sand King
269 picks · 791 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 61%
Hero pool strength52% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:27
Blue Submarine 30%One Move 70%
The model gave 70% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 38:23.
Game 2prediction correct29:5
Blue Submarine 30%One Move 70%
The model gave 70% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 18:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 70%
Series resultOne Move 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2