ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Secretloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere Junior
Lion
Riddys · 22 games
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 18 games
Rubick
Daze · 17 games
Timbersawoften banned
Niku · 16 games
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 15 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Riddys · 14 games
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 13 games
Dark Seersignature
pma · 13 games
Team Secret
Rubick
Shishak · 9 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
BOOM · 7 games
Batrider
Puppey · 5 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Puppey · 5 games
Dark Willow
Kyzko · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
423 · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Adzantick · 5 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Kyzko · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
451 picks · 601 bans
Clockwerk
386 picks · 417 bans
Luna
330 picks · 407 bans
Pangolier
330 picks · 471 bans
Enchantress
310 picks · 594 bans
Dark Willow
301 picks · 164 bans
Dragon Knight
284 picks · 341 bans
Sand King
269 picks · 791 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total67% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:32
Natus Vincere Junior 59%Team Secret 41%
The model gave 59% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Team Secret in 32:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiendgotthejuice
Bristleback423
Ember SpiritNiku
Storm SpiritAinkrad
Pangolierpma
Terrorbladeseimei
LionDaze
Nyx AssassinKyzko
Ogre MagiRiddys
Ancient ApparitionPuppey
Game 2prediction correct39:21
Natus Vincere Junior 60%Team Secret 40%
The model gave 60% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 42:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursagotthejuice
Nature's Prophet423
Broodmotherpma
Doomseimei
TimbersawNiku
Monkey KingAinkrad
GyrocopterDaze
Ogre MagiPuppey
LionRiddys
Skywrath MageKyzko
Game 3prediction correct26:18
Natus Vincere Junior 60%Team Secret 40%
The model gave 60% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 36:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlinggotthejuice
Razor423
Primal BeastNiku
PangolierAinkrad
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Doomseimei
LichRiddys
ChenPuppey
GyrocopterDaze
TuskKyzko
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 67%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3