ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
The Covenantloss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
RSRogue Squadwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Covenant
No games played over 6 months.
Rogue Squad
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
454 picks · 599 bans
Clockwerk
386 picks · 415 bans
Pangolier
331 picks · 472 bans
Luna
330 picks · 407 bans
Enchantress
311 picks · 596 bans
Dark Willow
301 picks · 164 bans
Dragon Knight
285 picks · 341 bans
Sand King
269 picks · 790 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% The Covenant
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Rogue Squad
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:37
The Covenant 45%Rogue Squad 55%
The model gave 55% on Rogue Squad — the game was taken by Rogue Squad in 35:10.
Game 2prediction correct34:41
The Covenant 45%Rogue Squad 55%
The model gave 55% on Rogue Squad — the game was taken by Rogue Squad in 53:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteRogue Squad · 55%
Series resultRogue Squad 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2