ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Titanwin 2:0series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TEAM TURTLEloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Titan
Grimstroke
mercy · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
BEYOND · 1 game
Sand Kingoften banned
Echo · 1 game
Shadow Fiendoften banned
poyoyo · 1 game
Tuskoften banned
zzq · 1 game
TEAM TURTLE
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Yang · 5 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Fantasy · 5 games
Dark Willow
pLAnet · 5 games
Razoroften banned
Yang · 5 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Somnus · 5 games
Dark Seer
Yang · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Chalice · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Somnus · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
453 picks · 598 bans
Clockwerk
386 picks · 415 bans
Pangolier
330 picks · 474 bans
Luna
328 picks · 406 bans
Enchantress
308 picks · 597 bans
Dark Willow
299 picks · 160 bans
Dragon Knight
288 picks · 340 bans
Sand King
268 picks · 790 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength62% TEAM TURTLE
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% TEAM TURTLE
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:24
Titan 28%TEAM TURTLE 72%
The model gave 72% on TEAM TURTLE — the game was taken by Titan in 43:59.
Game 2prediction missed32:8
Titan 28%TEAM TURTLE 72%
The model gave 72% on TEAM TURTLE — the game was taken by Titan in 26:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteTEAM TURTLE · 72%
Series resultTitan 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2