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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brotherswin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Spiky Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Poloson · 13 games
31%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Poloson · 10 games
60%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Emo · 10 games
70%
Muerta
Muerta
BoBoKa · 9 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
zeal · 9 games
44%
Medusa
Medusasignature
flyfly · 8 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 8 games
38%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Emo · 7 games
43%

Spiky Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Hara · 9 games
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Hara · 9 games
44%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Manic · 7 games
57%
Muerta
Muerta
TK · 6 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
20%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
TK · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
生死 · 5 games
0%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Hara · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
453 picks · 598 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
386 picks · 415 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
330 picks · 474 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
328 picks · 406 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
308 picks · 597 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
299 picks · 160 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
288 picks · 340 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
268 picks · 790 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:15
Yakult Brothers 67%Spiky Gaming 33%
The model gave 67% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 35:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistflyfly
58% · 197 games50% · 100 games
MedusaManic
Medusa
Primal Beast
Primal Beastzeal
55% · 316 games49% · 130 games
Bristleback生死
Bristleback
Monkey King
Monkey KingEmo
50% · 149 games47% · 170 games
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
Ember Spirit
Clinkz
ClinkzBoBoKa
41% · 65 games53% · 327 games
EnchantressTK
Enchantress
Tusk
TuskUndyne_
46% · 289 games46% · 289 games
HoodwinkHara
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct33:31
Yakult Brothers 65%Spiky Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 47:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunaflyfly
50% · 273 games48% · 140 games
MuertaManic
Muerta
Void Spirit
Void SpiritEmo
43% · 95 games50% · 259 games
PuckButterflyEffect
Puck
Sand King
Sand Kingzeal
52% · 115 games54% · 210 games
Primal Beast生死
Primal Beast
Razor
RazorBoBoKa
49% · 163 games49% · 46 games
DawnbreakerHara
Dawnbreaker
Pugna
PugnaUndyne_
51% · 153 games52% · 144 games
GrimstrokeTK
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 76%
Series resultYakult Brothers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2