ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:1series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Heroicloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Heroic
Clockwerksignature
KJ · 27 games
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 25 games
Snapfire
Scofield · 19 games
Tusksignature
Scofield · 18 games
Earth Spiritsignature
4nalog · 17 games
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 17 games
Alchemistsignature
K1 · 15 games
Marsoften banned
Davai · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
451 picks · 593 bans
Clockwerk
383 picks · 410 bans
Pangolier
333 picks · 473 bans
Luna
328 picks · 398 bans
Enchantress
308 picks · 596 bans
Dark Willow
295 picks · 161 bans
Dragon Knight
287 picks · 341 bans
Sand King
269 picks · 786 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 48%
Hero pool strength58% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 5
Model total69% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
beastcoast 31%Heroic 69%
The model gave 69% on Heroic — the game was taken by beastcoast.
Game 2prediction correct
beastcoast 31%Heroic 69%
The model gave 69% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic.
Game 3prediction missed
beastcoast 31%Heroic 69%
The model gave 69% on Heroic — the game was taken by beastcoast.
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 69%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3