?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Apex Genesiswin 2:0
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CONSILIUMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Apex Genesis

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Bignum · 14 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
YamSun · 10 games
40%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Fayde · 10 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
YamSun · 9 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Bignum · 9 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenix
YamSun · 8 games
50%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Bignum · 8 games
63%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Sammyboy · 8 games
50%

CONSILIUM

Muerta
Muerta
zuyzyan · 2 games
100%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Steelborco · 2 games
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Steelborco · 1 game
100%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
zuyzyan · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
448 picks · 592 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
383 picks · 405 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
332 picks · 471 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
328 picks · 398 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
308 picks · 595 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
294 picks · 158 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
287 picks · 339 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
268 picks · 787 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 57%
Hero pool strength61% CONSILIUM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Apex Genesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:4
Apex Genesis 66%CONSILIUM 34%
The model gave 66% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 22:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
TinkerRCY
62% · 9 games45% · 109 games
Medusazuyzyan
Medusa
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendYamSun
49% · 34 games50% · 66 games
OmniknightSteelborco
Omniknight
Primal Beast
Primal BeastFayde
51% · 44 games
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSpeeed
49% · 37 games
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBignum
57% · 51 game
Game 2prediction correct41:21
Apex Genesis 64%CONSILIUM 36%
The model gave 64% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 28:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautYamSun
57% · 6 games44% · 64 games
Muertazuyzyan
Muerta
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritRCY
59% · 85 games45% · 128 games
TuskSteelborco
Tusk
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterBignum
57% · 13 games
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeFayde
48% · 48 games
Chen
ChenSpeeed
61% · 40 games
Model check result
Model favoriteApex Genesis · 77%
Series resultApex Genesis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2