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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Underlord
Underlordsignature
Ace · 23 games
61%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Ace · 20 games
65%
Chen
Chensignature
Seleri · 18 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 16 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Quinn · 15 games
73%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Seleri · 15 games
47%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
dyrachyo · 14 games
71%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
tOfu · 14 games
57%

Team Liquid

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 26 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 25 games
44%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 25 games
76%
Razor
Razorsignature
miCKe · 21 game
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
iNSaNiA · 20 games
55%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
iNSaNiA · 19 games
47%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
miCKe · 19 games
68%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Boxi · 18 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
445 picks · 591 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
383 picks · 404 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
331 picks · 468 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
328 picks · 397 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
308 picks · 592 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
292 picks · 158 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
284 picks · 336 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
267 picks · 785 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 49%
Hero pool strength50% Team Liquid
Head-to-head4 – 8
Model total54% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:32
Gaimin Gladiators 47%Team Liquid 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 31:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightWatson
57% · 154 games55% · 135 games
MagnusmiCKe
Magnus
Sand King
Sand KingQuinn
51% · 44 games44% · 157 games
TerrorbladeSabeRLight-
Terrorblade
Primal Beast
Primal BeastAce
57% · 101 game47% · 170 games
Earth SpiritNisha
Earth Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
46% · 123 games47% · 22 games
LichiNSaNiA
Lich
Dark Willow
Dark WillowtOfu
52% · 98 games39% · 36 games
Bounty HunterBoxi
Bounty Hunter
Game 2prediction correct20:34
Gaimin Gladiators 45%Team Liquid 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 38:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightWatson
50% · 261 game56% · 210 games
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
Nature's Prophet
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeAce
47% · 77 games52% · 112 games
Queen of PainNisha
Queen of Pain
Phoenix
PhoenixQuinn
45% · 224 games54% · 285 games
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
Primal Beast
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSeleri
50% · 238 games48% · 311 games
Dark WillowBoxi
Dark Willow
Tusk
TusktOfu
42% · 260 games56% · 142 games
Elder TitaniNSaNiA
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 54%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2