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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:1
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PuckChamploss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Munkushi~ · 29 games
59%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 25 games
68%
Batrider
Batridersignature
RESPECT · 24 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
RESPECT · 24 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 24 games
67%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
swedenstrong · 24 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
RESPECT · 21 game
52%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
65%

PuckChamp

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Shad · 2 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Kaori · 2 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
BOOM · 2 games
50%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
BOOM · 1 game
0%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Kaori · 1 game
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 1 game
100%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 1 game
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kaori · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
444 picks · 591 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
380 picks · 403 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
328 picks · 466 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
327 picks · 396 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
308 picks · 586 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
292 picks · 157 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
282 picks · 332 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
263 picks · 785 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 78%
Hero pool strength54% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:12
1w Team 60%PuckChamp 40%
The model gave 60% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 37:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMunkushi~
54% · 324 games44% · 161 game
SvenShad
Sven
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerCloud
47% · 75 games50% · 143 games
Sand KingBOOM
Sand King
Invoker
InvokerChira JUNIOR
53% · 168 games49% · 112 games
MagnusSancity
Magnus
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinswedenstrong
64% · 87 games46% · 211 games
BatriderKaori
Batrider
Pugna
PugnaRESPECT
50% · 144 games43% · 171 game
LionQBFY
Lion
Game 2prediction missed18:35
1w Team 62%PuckChamp 38%
The model gave 62% on 1w Team — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 49:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
46% · 174 games44% · 266 games
GyrocopterShad
Gyrocopter
Pangolier
PangolierChira JUNIOR
50% · 533 games49% · 201 game
BeastmasterBOOM
Beastmaster
Magnus
MagnusCloud
55% · 193 games53% · 354 games
TinySancity
Tiny
Batrider
BatriderRESPECT
49% · 413 games50% · 363 games
RubickQBFY
Rubick
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinswedenstrong
56% · 88 games48% · 217 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Game 3prediction correct31:23
1w Team 58%PuckChamp 42%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 54:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaMunkushi~
50% · 324 games51% · 147 games
MedusaShad
Medusa
Invoker
InvokerChira JUNIOR
53% · 160 games49% · 475 games
PangolierSancity
Pangolier
Mars
MarsCloud
49% · 306 games55% · 282 games
Primal BeastBOOM
Primal Beast
Phoenix
Phoenixswedenstrong
46% · 307 games50% · 320 games
Shadow DemonKaori
Shadow Demon
Tusk
TuskRESPECT
51% · 305 games47% · 178 games
MarciQBFY
Marci
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 67%
Series result1w Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3