?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 1:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HULIGANIwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Kiritych · 15 games
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Fng · 12 games
58%
Underlord
Underlord
Noticed · 12 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
aik · 10 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Kiritych · 10 games
80%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 9 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Antares · 8 games
63%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fng · 8 games
75%

HULIGANI

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Panto · 19 games
68%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
OneJey · 18 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
v1olent- · 17 games
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
OneJey · 17 games
53%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mirage · 16 games
69%
Rubick
Rubick
Panto · 16 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Panto · 15 games
47%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Panto · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
444 picks · 591 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
380 picks · 403 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
328 picks · 466 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
327 picks · 396 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
308 picks · 586 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
292 picks · 157 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
282 picks · 332 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
263 picks · 785 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total53% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:26
Virtus.pro 48%HULIGANI 52%
The model gave 52% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 42:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaKiritych
41% · 97 games53% · 308 games
Dragon Knightv1olent-
Dragon Knight
Invoker
InvokerSquad1x
52% · 135 games52% · 63 games
BroodmotherAlberkaaa
Broodmother
Timbersaw
TimbersawNoticed
50% · 235 games52% · 128 games
Sand KingMirage
Sand King
Clockwerk
Clockwerkaik
47% · 286 games59% · 96 games
ChenPanto
Chen
Techies
TechiesAntares
39% · 139 games52% · 297 games
HoodwinkOneJey
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed32:20
Virtus.pro 47%HULIGANI 53%
The model gave 53% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 42:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinKiritych
50% · 161 game55% · 199 games
Shadow Fiendv1olent-
Shadow Fiend
Pangolier
PangolierSquad1x
48% · 378 games54% · 301 game
PuckMirage
Puck
Phoenix
PhoenixNoticed
49% · 245 games52% · 192 games
Sand KingAlberkaaa
Sand King
Clockwerk
ClockwerkAntares
52% · 276 games45% · 311 games
BatriderOneJey
Batrider
Bristleback
Bristlebackaik
45% · 115 games51% · 172 games
PugnaPanto
Pugna
Game 3prediction correct9:26
Virtus.pro 50%HULIGANI 50%
The model gave 50% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 38:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaKiritych
39% · 100 games50% · 91 game
Shadow Fiendv1olent-
Shadow Fiend
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNoticed
41% · 91 game52% · 29 games
ViperMirage
Viper
Monkey King
Monkey KingSquad1x
57% · 164 games54% · 71 game
Sand KingAlberkaaa
Sand King
Pugna
PugnaAntares
43% · 99 games49% · 203 games
HoodwinkOneJey
Hoodwink
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenaik
57% · 129 games54% · 189 games
ClockwerkPanto
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 53%
Series resultHULIGANI 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3