?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Winter Bearloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 24 games
79%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
GH · 19 games
58%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 18 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenix
GH · 17 games
59%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Fbz · 13 games
85%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Fbz · 13 games
54%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Miracle- · 12 games
58%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
GH · 12 games
33%

Winter Bear

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 3 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ArrOw · 3 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ethereal · 2 games
0%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Stoic · 2 games
0%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Ethereal · 2 games
0%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Stoic · 2 games
0%
Venomancer
Venomancer
Stoic · 2 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
441 picks · 589 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
380 picks · 399 bans
52%
Luna
Luna
327 picks · 393 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
327 picks · 461 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
305 picks · 586 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
291 picks · 156 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
278 picks · 329 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
263 picks · 780 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 67%
Hero pool strength67% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total82% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:11
Nigma Galaxy 82%Winter Bear 18%
The model gave 82% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 27:12.
Game 2prediction correct20:14
Nigma Galaxy 82%Winter Bear 18%
The model gave 82% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 26:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 82%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2