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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Looking for Orgwin 2:1
series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Blade breakersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Looking for Org

Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 23 games
43%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Yadomi · 16 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Mnz · 16 games
38%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Yadomi · 16 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 14 games
43%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 14 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Yadomi · 13 games
31%
Luna
Lunasignature
Mnz · 13 games
62%

Blade breakers

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
441 picks · 589 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
380 picks · 399 bans
52%
Luna
Luna
327 picks · 393 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
327 picks · 461 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
305 picks · 586 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
291 picks · 156 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
278 picks · 329 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
263 picks · 780 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% Blade breakers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Looking for Org
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:6
Looking for Org 77%Blade breakers 23%
The model gave 77% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 22:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterPakazs
46% · 261 game56% · 160 games
AlchemistbsK7-
Alchemist
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSacred
54% · 62 games54% · 320 games
PangolierÑengoflow KELOKE
Pangolier
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritDarkMago
46% · 116 games49% · 184 games
MarsCara
Mars
Pugna
PugnaMatthew
47% · 160 games48% · 226 games
PhoenixAccel
Phoenix
Tusk
TuskYadomi
49% · 291 game
Game 2prediction missed17:33
Looking for Org 77%Blade breakers 23%
The model gave 77% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Blade breakers in 34:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyDarkMago
54% · 273 games53% · 191 game
AlchemistbsK7-
Alchemist
Meepo
MeepoPakazs
51% · 36 games57% · 143 games
Earth SpiritÑengoflow KELOKE
Earth Spirit
Visage
VisageSacred
46% · 75 games49% · 269 games
MarsCara
Mars
Enchantress
EnchantressYadomi
48% · 258 games45% · 288 games
PhoenixAccel
Phoenix
Tusk
TuskMatthew
48% · 249 games
Game 3prediction correct30:9
Looking for Org 76%Blade breakers 24%
The model gave 76% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 22:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendPakazs
53% · 92 games47% · 335 games
Dragon KnightbsK7-
Dragon Knight
Bristleback
BristlebackSacred
47% · 60 games52% · 131 game
Earth SpiritÑengoflow KELOKE
Earth Spirit
Mars
MarsDarkMago
52% · 158 games48% · 94 games
TerrorbladeCara
Terrorblade
Snapfire
SnapfireMatthew
47% · 103 games47% · 26 games
LichAccel
Lich
Clockwerk
ClockwerkYadomi
54% · 173 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLooking for Org · 92%
Series resultLooking for Org 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3