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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Underlord
Underlordsignature
Ace · 23 games
61%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Ace · 20 games
65%
Chen
Chensignature
Seleri · 18 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 16 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Quinn · 15 games
73%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Seleri · 15 games
47%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
dyrachyo · 14 games
71%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
tOfu · 14 games
57%

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 25 games
52%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Ari · 22 games
59%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 20 games
70%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 17 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 15 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bzm · 15 games
67%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Nine · 15 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Wisper · 13 games
77%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
440 picks · 587 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
379 picks · 397 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
328 picks · 459 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
327 picks · 392 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
306 picks · 589 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
290 picks · 156 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
278 picks · 328 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
263 picks · 776 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% OG
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total70% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:18
Gaimin Gladiators 60%OG 40%
The model gave 60% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 53:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeAce
52% · 74 games51% · 90 games
Medusa23savage
Medusa
Void Spirit
Void SpiritQuinn
49% · 108 games38% · 55 games
VisageWisper
Visage
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterWatson
47% · 173 games57% · 143 games
InvokerNine
Invoker
Rubick
RubicktOfu
49% · 214 games53% · 126 games
MagnusAri
Magnus
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiSeleri
50% · 34 games51% · 189 games
PhoenixxNova
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct20:11
Gaimin Gladiators 60%OG 40%
The model gave 60% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 31:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaWatson
50% · 174 games49% · 287 games
Gyrocopter23savage
Gyrocopter
Pangolier
PangolierQuinn
47% · 401 game53% · 237 games
PuckNine
Puck
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightAce
47% · 334 games54% · 280 games
DoomWisper
Doom
Pugna
PugnaSeleri
51% · 128 games54% · 299 games
HoodwinkAri
Hoodwink
Muerta
MuertatOfu
41% · 122 games54% · 56 games
Ogre MagixNova
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 70%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2