ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Advance Esportswin 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The Covenantloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Advance Esports
No games played over 6 months.
The Covenant
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
439 picks · 581 bans
Clockwerk
376 picks · 393 bans
Luna
327 picks · 390 bans
Pangolier
326 picks · 454 bans
Enchantress
307 picks · 581 bans
Dark Willow
287 picks · 156 bans
Dragon Knight
274 picks · 328 bans
Sand King
262 picks · 772 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Advance Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% The Covenant
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:11
Advance Esports 49%The Covenant 51%
The model gave 51% on The Covenant — the game was taken by Advance Esports in 24:10.
Game 2prediction missed45:21
Advance Esports 49%The Covenant 51%
The model gave 51% on The Covenant — the game was taken by Advance Esports in 32:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Covenant · 51%
Series resultAdvance Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2