ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brothersloss 1:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yakult Brothers
Enchantressoften banned
Poloson · 12 games
Clockwerksignature
Poloson · 10 games
Invokersignature
Emo · 10 games
Muerta
BoBoKa · 9 games
Pangolieroften banned
zeal · 9 games
Lunasignature
flyfly · 7 games
Medusaoften banned
flyfly · 7 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Poloson · 7 games
Xtreme Gaming
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 22 games
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 19 games
Clockwerksignature
天命 · 18 games
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 18 games
Puckoften banned
Xm · 17 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 16 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Ame · 16 games
Tusksignature
天命 · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
436 picks · 578 bans
Clockwerk
374 picks · 391 bans
Luna
324 picks · 387 bans
Pangolier
321 picks · 452 bans
Enchantress
302 picks · 577 bans
Dark Willow
287 picks · 156 bans
Dragon Knight
271 picks · 326 bans
Sand King
260 picks · 769 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 39%
Hero pool strength54% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:25
Yakult Brothers 46%Xtreme Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 32:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemistflyfly
Dragon Knightlou
Earth SpiritEmo
Dawnbreakerniu
Bristlebackzeal
PangolierXm
Crystal MaidenUndyne_
EnchantressPoloson
LionBoBoKa
TuskPyw
Game 2prediction missed26:18
Yakult Brothers 42%Xtreme Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 36:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusaflyfly
Gyrocopterlou
Beastmasterzeal
Dawnbreakerniu
RazorEmo
Storm SpiritXm
LionBoBoKa
HoodwinkPyw
AlchemistUndyne_
ClockwerkPoloson
Game 3prediction correct21:25
Yakult Brothers 43%Xtreme Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 38:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseekerflyfly
Lunalou
Storm SpiritEmo
PuckXm
Primal Beastzeal
Pangolierniu
EnchantressUndyne_
MuertaPyw
LionBoBoKa
ClockwerkPoloson
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 64%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3