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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 31 game
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 30 games
63%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Whitemon · 28 games
54%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 25 games
68%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 25 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 25 games
76%
Mars
Marssignature
RAMZES666 · 24 games
75%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Pure~ · 22 games
68%

Zero Tenacity

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 3 games
100%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
LeBronDota · 2 games
100%
Batrider
Batrider
Thiolicor · 2 games
100%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
MikSa` · 2 games
100%
Lion
Lion
Thiolicor · 2 games
50%
Magnus
Magnus
MikSa` · 2 games
50%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
DaaD- · 2 games
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Stojkov · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
437 picks · 577 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
373 picks · 391 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
324 picks · 387 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
320 picks · 453 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
304 picks · 577 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
286 picks · 156 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
267 picks · 329 bans
51%
Sand King
Sand King
259 picks · 766 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 75%
Hero pool strength50% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:10
Tundra Esports 78%Zero Tenacity 22%
The model gave 78% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 23:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNightfall
52% · 154 games53% · 268 games
Dragon KnightDaaD-
Dragon Knight
Broodmother
Broodmother33
54% · 99 games44% · 176 games
Ember SpiritStojkov
Ember Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
50% · 268 games45% · 69 games
VisageMikSa`
Visage
Dark Willow
Dark WillowSaksa
52% · 272 games48% · 195 games
PhoenixLeBronDota
Phoenix
Naga Siren
Naga SirenWhitemon
55% · 169 games46% · 254 games
TuskThiolicor
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct32:28
Tundra Esports 77%Zero Tenacity 23%
The model gave 77% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 39:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNightfall
51% · 303 games43% · 347 games
GyrocopterDaaD-
Gyrocopter
Doom
Doom33
48% · 217 games55% · 128 games
InvokerStojkov
Invoker
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
55% · 190 games49% · 202 games
Sand KingMikSa`
Sand King
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
51% · 224 games48% · 153 games
Keeper of the LightThiolicor
Keeper of the Light
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSaksa
50% · 261 game49% · 365 games
ClockwerkLeBronDota
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 91%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2