ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:1series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Blue Submarineloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Windrangeroften banned
Munkushi~ · 29 games
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 25 games
Enchantresssignature
RESPECT · 24 games
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 24 games
Weaveroften banned
swedenstrong · 24 games
Batridersignature
RESPECT · 22 games
Clockwerkoften banned
RESPECT · 21 game
Rubick
swedenstrong · 19 games
Blue Submarine
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
436 picks · 576 bans
Clockwerk
373 picks · 390 bans
Luna
323 picks · 386 bans
Pangolier
319 picks · 450 bans
Enchantress
303 picks · 573 bans
Dark Willow
285 picks · 155 bans
Dragon Knight
266 picks · 325 bans
Sand King
258 picks · 766 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 70%
Hero pool strength56% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:28
1w Team 88%Blue Submarine 12%
The model gave 88% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Blue Submarine in 43:26.
Game 2prediction correct28:6
1w Team 88%Blue Submarine 12%
The model gave 88% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 33:10.
Game 3prediction correct40:16
1w Team 88%Blue Submarine 12%
The model gave 88% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 36:00.
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 88%
Series result1w Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3