ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:1
CCastawakeloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
Timbersawsignature
Jabz · 13 games
Batrider
Q · 12 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 12 games
Clockwerksignature
Q · 11 games
Hoodwink
Q · 11 games
Snapfire
Q · 10 games
Tuskoften banned
Q · 10 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
23savage · 9 games
Castawake
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
436 picks · 570 bans
Clockwerk
374 picks · 382 bans
Luna
323 picks · 381 bans
Pangolier
318 picks · 446 bans
Enchantress
302 picks · 567 bans
Dark Willow
284 picks · 155 bans
Dragon Knight
266 picks · 323 bans
Sand King
256 picks · 762 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Castawake
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:26
Aurora Gaming 92%Castawake 8%
The model gave 92% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Castawake in 46:03.
Game 2prediction correct28:12
Aurora Gaming 92%Castawake 8%
The model gave 92% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 35:21.
Game 3prediction correct8:33
Aurora Gaming 92%Castawake 8%
The model gave 92% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 35:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 92%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3