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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaozuwin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Spiky Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaozu

Bane
Bane
Dy · 1 game
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
JT- · 1 game
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
XinQ · 1 game
100%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
JT- · 1 game
100%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Paparazi · 1 game
100%
Lich
Lich
Dy · 1 game
100%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Ame · 1 game
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ame · 1 game
100%

Spiky Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Hara · 8 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Hara · 7 games
29%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Manic · 6 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
TK · 5 games
40%
Muerta
Muerta
TK · 5 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Hara · 5 games
40%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 5 games
40%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Manic · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
436 picks · 570 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
374 picks · 382 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
323 picks · 381 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
318 picks · 446 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
302 picks · 567 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
284 picks · 155 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
266 picks · 323 bans
51%
Sand King
Sand King
256 picks · 762 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 43%
Hero pool strength62% Gaozu
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Gaozu
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:11
Gaozu 68%Spiky Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Gaozu — the game was taken by Gaozu in 30:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistAme
59% · 162 games43% · 197 games
MorphlingManic
Morphling
Night Stalker
Night StalkerJT-
55% · 41 game47% · 166 games
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
Ember Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritPaparazi
53% · 259 games46% · 303 games
Pangolier生死
Pangolier
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeXinQ
57% · 194 games56% · 5 games
TinkerHara
Tinker
Pugna
PugnaDy
49% · 143 games44% · 128 games
MuertaTK
Muerta
Game 2prediction correct18:20
Gaozu 65%Spiky Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on Gaozu — the game was taken by Gaozu in 32:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautAme
44% · 22 games50% · 145 games
AlchemistManic
Alchemist
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritPaparazi
55% · 202 games45% · 91 game
LeshracButterflyEffect
Leshrac
Magnus
MagnusJT-
54% · 142 games54% · 217 games
Primal Beast生死
Primal Beast
Muerta
MuertaXinQ
46% · 139 games46% · 256 games
HoodwinkTK
Hoodwink
Enchantress
EnchantressDy
49% · 322 games51% · 118 games
GrimstrokeHara
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteGaozu · 76%
Series resultGaozu 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2