ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Kukuyswin 2:1series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ivoryloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Kukuys
Marcioften banned
Palos · 7 games
Mirana
Palos · 5 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jing · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 4 games
Tuskoften banned
Natsumi · 4 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Natsumi · 3 games
Dark Willow
Jing · 3 games
Lone Druidoften banned
Palos · 3 games
Ivory
Earth Spiritoften banned
Ken · 3 games
Batrider
Dric~ · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Rupido · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Ken · 2 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Rupido · 2 games
Rubick
Dric~ · 2 games
Dark Willow
Dric~ · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Rupido · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
436 picks · 567 bans
Clockwerk
375 picks · 379 bans
Pangolier
321 picks · 446 bans
Luna
320 picks · 379 bans
Enchantress
301 picks · 569 bans
Dark Willow
283 picks · 153 bans
Dragon Knight
266 picks · 328 bans
Shadow Demon
258 picks · 985 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Team Kukuys
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total77% Team Kukuys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:29
Team Kukuys 77%Ivory 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Kukuys — the game was taken by Ivory in 38:14.
Game 2prediction missed12:22
Team Kukuys 77%Ivory 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Kukuys — the game was taken by Ivory in 31:27.
Game 3prediction missed32:18
Team Kukuys 77%Ivory 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Kukuys — the game was taken by Ivory in 34:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Kukuys · 77%
Series resultTeam Kukuys 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3