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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brotherswin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Evil Rabbitloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Poloson · 12 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Poloson · 9 games
56%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Emo · 9 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
zeal · 9 games
44%
Muerta
Muerta
BoBoKa · 8 games
50%
Luna
Lunasignature
flyfly · 7 games
71%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
flyfly · 7 games
57%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Poloson · 7 games
43%

Evil Rabbit

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Irving · 7 games
29%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Irving · 6 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
QYQX · 5 games
40%
Lina
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
40%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Irving · 5 games
40%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Irving · 5 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
QYQX · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
436 picks · 567 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
375 picks · 379 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
321 picks · 446 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
320 picks · 379 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
301 picks · 569 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
283 picks · 153 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
266 picks · 328 bans
51%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
258 picks · 985 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:2
Yakult Brothers 76%Evil Rabbit 24%
The model gave 76% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 17:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey Kingflyfly
35% · 58 games47% · 203 games
Gyrocopterukiyo
Gyrocopter
Magnus
Magnuszeal
55% · 40 games55% · 110 games
EnigmaIrving
Enigma
Invoker
InvokerEmo
60% · 44 games
Lion
LionBoBoKa
51% · 66 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkUndyne_
44% · 105 games
Game 2prediction correct26:7
Yakult Brothers 72%Evil Rabbit 28%
The model gave 72% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 26:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistflyfly
58% · 78 games49% · 261 game
Lunaukiyo
Luna
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritEmo
52% · 59 games44% · 105 games
BristlebackIrving
Bristleback
Primal Beast
Primal Beastzeal
55% · 99 games
Pugna
PugnaUndyne_
53% · 57 games
Muerta
MuertaBoBoKa
50% · 73 games
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 88%
Series resultYakult Brothers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2