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European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
LeBronDota · 2 games
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 2 games
100%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
DaaD- · 2 games
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Stojkov · 2 games
100%
Muerta
Muerta
Thiolicor · 2 games
100%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
MikSa` · 2 games
100%
Batrider
Batrider
Thiolicor · 1 game
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MikSa` · 1 game
100%

Nemiga Gaming

Rubick
Rubick
jesv · 16 games
31%
Batrider
Batridersignature
jesv · 15 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
aik · 13 games
46%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Shishak · 13 games
69%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
aik · 12 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
nicky`cool · 12 games
33%
Underlord
Underlord
MikSa` · 12 games
33%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
nicky`cool · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
434 picks · 566 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
375 picks · 381 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
321 picks · 446 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
319 picks · 378 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
301 picks · 572 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
284 picks · 153 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
267 picks · 332 bans
51%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
259 picks · 985 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 33%
Hero pool strength61% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:15
Zero Tenacity 59%Nemiga Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 32:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaDaaD-
52% · 204 games46% · 201 game
DoomMiyaoo
Doom
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerMikSa`
54% · 52 games45% · 158 games
Earth Spiritряф^^
Earth Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritStojkov
54% · 128 games49% · 182 games
MuertaShishak
Muerta
Lion
LionThiolicor
57% · 124 games52% · 173 games
Naga Sirenantoha
Naga Siren
Tusk
TuskLeBronDota
44% · 206 games
Game 2prediction missed8:31
Zero Tenacity 59%Nemiga Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 26:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendDaaD-
52% · 101 game43% · 128 games
TerrorbladeMiyaoo
Terrorblade
Magnus
MagnusMikSa`
54% · 88 games49% · 119 games
Earth Spiritряф^^
Earth Spirit
Tiny
TinyStojkov
56% · 230 games57% · 123 games
Chenantoha
Chen
Lion
LionThiolicor
44% · 140 games49% · 366 games
HoodwinkShishak
Hoodwink
Tusk
TuskLeBronDota
46% · 177 games
Game 3prediction correct30:20
Zero Tenacity 59%Nemiga Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 37:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterDaaD-
47% · 224 games47% · 140 games
Razorряф^^
Razor
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinStojkov
53% · 159 games54% · 85 games
SlardarMiyaoo
Slardar
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerMikSa`
48% · 49 games46% · 274 games
HoodwinkShishak
Hoodwink
Batrider
BatriderThiolicor
51% · 278 games53% · 245 games
Enchantressantoha
Enchantress
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiLeBronDota
50% · 34 games
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 66%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3