?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:0
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DMSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Muerta
Muerta
ariel · 2 games
50%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
PERDAN4IK · 2 games
100%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
мистер мораль · 2 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
Otaker · 2 games
100%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
Otaker · 1 game
0%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 1 game
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 1 game
100%
Lion
Lion
ariel · 1 game
100%

DMS

Batrider
Batrider
Daxak · 17 games
47%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 12 games
75%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
prblms · 12 games
58%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
rincyq · 11 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Daxak · 11 games
36%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Hduo · 10 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
aik · 9 games
44%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
prblms · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
434 picks · 564 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
378 picks · 379 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
322 picks · 447 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
319 picks · 377 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
300 picks · 575 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
284 picks · 153 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
268 picks · 332 bans
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
258 picks · 985 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 62%
Hero pool strength53% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% DMS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:18
4Pirates 36%DMS 64%
The model gave 64% on DMS — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 40:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeOtaker
46% · 162 games51% · 235 games
Morphlingxannii
Morphling
Invoker
InvokerNattyNarwhal
44% · 186 games53% · 273 games
Tinymellojul
Tiny
Underlord
Underlordмистер мораль
49% · 125 games58% · 219 games
Centaur Warrunneremptiness
Centaur Warrunner
Muerta
Muertaariel
46% · 147 games47% · 241 game
Hoodwinkprblms
Hoodwink
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPERDAN4IK
52% · 378 games53% · 30 games
Ogre MagiHduo
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction missed26:23
4Pirates 36%DMS 64%
The model gave 64% on DMS — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 40:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendOtaker
52% · 134 games50% · 129 games
Alchemistxannii
Alchemist
Underlord
Underlordмистер мораль
56% · 104 games46% · 161 game
Doomemptiness
Doom
Invoker
InvokerNattyNarwhal
47% · 155 games49% · 231 game
Tinymellojul
Tiny
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterariel
54% · 27 games53% · 102 games
Muertaprblms
Muerta
Enchantress
EnchantressPERDAN4IK
51% · 294 games44% · 91 game
PugnaHduo
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteDMS · 75%
Series result4Pirates 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2