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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fluxloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Rubick
Rubick
Shishak · 10 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
BOOM · 7 games
71%
Batrider
Batrider
Puppey · 5 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Puppey · 5 games
40%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
BOOM · 5 games
40%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Kyzko · 5 games
80%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Crystallis · 5 games
40%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Shishak · 5 games
60%

Flux

Doom
Doomoften banned
laise · 2 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
young G · 2 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
ariel · 2 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Nefrit · 2 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
young G · 2 games
0%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
rubikon155 · 1 game
100%
Batrider
Batrider
333 · 1 game
0%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Nefrit · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
434 picks · 563 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
376 picks · 379 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
321 picks · 442 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
319 picks · 377 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
300 picks · 575 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
283 picks · 151 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
265 picks · 332 bans
50%
Sand King
Sand King
257 picks · 757 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:12
Team Secret 62%Flux 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 36:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight423
53% · 272 games45% · 161 game
Morphlingrubikon155
Morphling
Monkey King
Monkey KingAinkrad
60% · 111 games39% · 96 games
TerrorbladeNefrit
Terrorblade
Pugna
PugnaPuppey
63% · 105 games40% · 61 game
Earth SpiritSerenada
Earth Spirit
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterKyzko
37% · 19 games49% · 189 games
Clockwerkso bad
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct35:9
Team Secret 59%Flux 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 27:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight423
47% · 186 games51% · 110 games
Terrorbladerubikon155
Terrorblade
Phoenix
PhoenixAinkrad
47% · 123 games53% · 132 games
Nature's ProphetSerenada
Nature's Prophet
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiPuppey
56% · 23 games49% · 87 games
BristlebackNefrit
Bristleback
Dark Willow
Dark WillowKyzko
52% · 141 game49% · 144 games
Pugnaso bad
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 69%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2