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European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
9Pandaswin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hydraloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Weaver
Weaversignature
sayuw · 10 games
60%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Solo · 8 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 6 games
50%
Undying
Undying
Solo · 5 games
20%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Alberkaaa · 4 games
75%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 4 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Solo · 4 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DarkLord^ · 4 games
50%

Hydra

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 7 games
43%
Underlord
Underlord
Actor · 6 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Actor · 5 games
40%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
ani-san · 5 games
60%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 5 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
ani-san · 5 games
20%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Ethereal · 4 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
ani-san · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
434 picks · 562 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
376 picks · 379 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
320 picks · 441 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
318 picks · 377 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
300 picks · 573 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
281 picks · 151 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
264 picks · 331 bans
50%
Sand King
Sand King
257 picks · 755 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 48%
Hero pool strength54% 9Pandas
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:12
9Pandas 67%Hydra 33%
The model gave 67% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 28:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightDarkLord^
50% · 95 games41% · 142 games
Earth Spiritselfhate
Earth Spirit
Pangolier
Pangoliererase
52% · 113 games51% · 107 games
UnderlordActor
Underlord
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderATF
63% · 8 games45% · 171 game
MuertaAstral
Muerta
Dark Willow
Dark Willowyamich
57% · 119 games
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSolo
55% · 85 games
Game 2prediction correct42:14
9Pandas 68%Hydra 32%
The model gave 68% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 26:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaDarkLord^
49% · 159 games42% · 124 games
Void Spiritselfhate
Void Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterATF
50% · 50 games48% · 212 games
Primal BeastActor
Primal Beast
Monkey King
Monkey Kingerase
56% · 67 games45% · 214 games
Dark WillowAstral
Dark Willow
Invoker
Invokeryamich
56% · 118 games
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSolo
63% · 156 games
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 79%
Series result9Pandas 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2