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European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:1
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Dragon Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lion
Riddys · 22 games
55%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 18 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 17 games
53%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Niku · 16 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 14 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Riddys · 14 games
43%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
pma · 13 games
62%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Niku · 13 games
46%

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 26 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 18 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 17 games
18%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
paw · 16 games
63%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mary_y · 16 games
50%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
lil pleb · 14 games
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
lil pleb · 13 games
38%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
435 picks · 561 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
376 picks · 381 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
322 picks · 443 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
318 picks · 377 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
301 picks · 576 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
281 picks · 150 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
266 picks · 334 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
258 picks · 983 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 55%
Hero pool strength55% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total74% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Natus Vincere Junior 74%Dragon Esports 26%
The model gave 74% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Dragon Esports.
Game 2prediction correct
Natus Vincere Junior 74%Dragon Esports 26%
The model gave 74% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior.
Game 3prediction correct
Natus Vincere Junior 74%Dragon Esports 26%
The model gave 74% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 74%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3